Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The typical number of everyday killings each month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative data. But, security specialists have advised that homicide numbers might not signal better countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably notable,” the President said, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Violent cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central components of the President's safety plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety analysts warned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was problematic. This is particularly true given the increase in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly concerning because it could obscure days when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact crimes, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely effective, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst said.