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Initially, the former US president seemed to adopt a resolute position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making warnings of "significant ramifications" last August if Vladimir Putin carried on obstructing truce negotiations, he finally introduced considerable restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, that was drafted by American and Russian officials without Ukraine's or EU involvement, the former president has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's initiative would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving the country's democracy in danger. Although strong statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually undermine that very sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump persists to view the war as a simple territorial dispute, implying giving Putin a section of Ukraine's land will please the leader. However, Putin's military campaign is not merely about dominating a damaged swath of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it stops acts as an appealing model for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his increasing autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in place the currently split regions of these areas, the proposal would require the nation to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unable to capture in over a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses critically weakened.

This region is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that represent a essential impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he later decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would make renewed hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would require the nation to diminish the numbers of its troops from their current large number personnel to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's chosen by the people leadership as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Any radical ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." As if to underscore this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, the proposal sets no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the plan has Russia pledge not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached comparable accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to honor the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Putin this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the plan threatens a "strong joint armed reaction" if Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details include fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from stationing military personnel on the nation's land, thereby preventing the security presence, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Response

A separate parallel deal apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This implies a military response. But different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of alliance members, including Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's attacks, something they have {not