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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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